Akkam's Razor TL;DR.

This is normally the sort of post that I would write and post as a “draft  until my prediction would come to fruition, running late Election evening or the following morning.   I feel that it might be most useful to write it now, so anyone stumbling across it will look at political events in the near-term future through the frame of a likely-outcome that I’ve defined,   hopefully reaching the same conclusions.

First, a disclaimer “ I am an active voter, but not an active partisan beyond writing online.   I could be moved to donate time, talent, money, and resources if  there were some chance of winning or a sincere demonstration of competency on either the local, regional, or state level, but as of yet I have seen none.   Yes, I intend to be an armchair quarterback with little to no skin in the game ¦yet.

Over the course of the next 6-month or so, expect to see a variety of posts involving the problems of area school boards, townships, municipalities, and boroughs, the greater Philadelphia Region, and the State of Pennsylvania.   I will call for the destruction of some institutions, the reform others, and the creation of new institutions to fill in the gaps.   I say these things not out of envy of the powerful and influential but because of the realization that the system is broken and unsustainable, and those in power have little incentive to risk their own influence by changing the system.

I feel confident in stating that the State and Local Democratic parties have failed their bases and particularly the voters of Delaware County by not cultivating a competent roster of candidates, presenting a clear alternative to the Republican Machine, and by effectively maintaining the status quo at the cost of the progress necessary to better our lives.

I fully expect to have a Republican Governor come November 2010 as well as a Republican representing PA-07 in the House of Representatives.   I expect that there will be zero accountability in the State Legislature, County Seat, and local municipality governance.   Simply put, there is no alternative to “the devil you know .   Voters will either drop out or vote for the status quo since there are no favorable options.

This is not to say that there are not individuals who sacrifice much to advance Democratic prerogatives despite the challenges.   There are those that do.   The problem IS there are two few of those people, and there is no system for them to operate within.     The National Democratic party has failed to learn the lesson the Republicans mastered post-1964, instead assuming that the transformational election of the first African-American President would provide sufficient coattails for down-ticket candidates to prosper.   This is clearly ignorant of the established trends in county voting history.   The lessons I hope to illustrate will do nothing to change the realities that are all but certain “ they will however hint at a way forward on the morning of November 3^rd, 2010.