11
Dec 12

Apple’s China Syndrome

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I think there’s several things going on here, none of which has to do with a good operational decision. Is Apple moving some manufacturing to the United States a move from weakness or strength?

First and foremost this is a political statement. Apple has been lamenting the ability to manufacture in the US due to a talent deficit. There’s plenty of talent here, but the problem is that China can simply iterate and pivot faster due to the geographic proximity of design, manufacturing, and labor. Look at how quickly they are able ramp-up production of new products or tackle the initial quality problems with the iPhone 5, labor problems not withstanding.

Then there’s the uncertainty with corporate profits and taxes. One of the legitimate beefs is that profits are offshored to avoid paying taxes. I’d bet this is a token offering to quell those complaints.

Lastly is the China problem, in general. The Chinese excel at reverse engineering, far better than say the Soviets during the Cold War but not as good as the Japanese. I’d say they have climbed learning curve far better than either. All of those manufacturing concerns who fled to China for cheap labor have ended up building factories for their competition (most are joint ventures partially-owned by the state), training their future competitors workforce, and formally and informally transferring their intellectual property. I’ve made this complaint previously with regards to automakers, but I think it applies across the board.

One need not look any further than the frenemy situation between Apple and Samsung (noting that Samsung is a South Korean company). Apple has long partnered with Samsung for chips, processors, and screen technology. This has allowed Samsung to rapidly build the competencies needed to rival their own client, a situation that is causing Apple to frequently go it alone and take their relationship to the courts.

Put me down that a small shift to US manufacturing is a defensive move.


30
Oct 12

Honestly.

Great video from RSA Animate about honesty and cheating.


18
Oct 10

404 Privacy Not Found

The curious thing to me about the Facebook apps ‘leaking data’ story is not that’s its happening, but rather the low levels of digital literacy (or the fact that this has been happening for years) by the public:

Many of the most popular applications, or “apps,” on the social-networking site Facebook Inc. have been transmitting identifying information—in effect, providing access to people’s names and, in some cases, their friends’ names—to dozens of advertising and Internet tracking companies, a Wall Street Journal investigation has found.

The issue affects tens of millions of Facebook app users, including people who set their profiles to Facebook’s strictest privacy settings. The practice breaks Facebook’s rules, and renews questions about its ability to keep identifiable information about its users’ activities secure.

The difference in the past was that the cost of acquiring this data was substantial enough to make it not worth the effort.  The amount of data freely available and the decreased cost of computing power make it a trivial effort.  This is only going to become more prevalent as online providers look to monetize the sale of data.  The problem is that data is being used in ways that the average internet user cannot comprehend, and therefore cannot make an informed decision to opt-in or opt-out.

Continue reading →


12
Oct 10

Mental Exercise: Data, Mortgages, Derivatives, and Foreclosure

I’m heartened to see that 40 of the Attorneys General of the states here in the US are going to examine mortgage foreclosure fraud.

I’m certain more than a few of them will take the easy way out and blame the victims  (afterall, this is an election year, and the Teabaggers will demand scalps), but there can be little doubt that fraud was occurring on a massive scale and likely was the cause of the collapse of the US housing market.  A 2005 FBI report estimated that 80% of fraud losses came collusion and collaboration from industry insiders (via this MeFi thread).  All of the major lenders are at the very least scrutinizing their processes and at most ordering foreclosure moratoriums.

How could data mining and visualization aid in surfacing potential fraud?

As a mental exercise, consider the multitude of data that certainly exists and the challenge of combing the haystack and creation of a comprehensible narrative.

These flowcharts posted by Barry Ritholtz (sourced from  Foreclosure Fraud for Dummies Part 1,  Part TwoPart Three, and Part Four) show the process as it should occur.  The news has been full of stories about foreclosure mills rushing foreclosures through and in some cases ‘recreating’ original documents, pushing through foreclosures.

Government agencies – both local, state, and Federal – have access to terabytes of data from the VA, HUD, Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac, with more to be discovered via subpoena, from proprietary lender systems to MLS and MERS to credit bureau data, as well as email and other correspondence between borrower, lender, and broker, as well as the other invested parties.   From Patriot Act disclosures to county deed filings and lien notices to the eviction notice sent to the sheriff, each of those transactions lives as a datapoint, somewhere…

Then there’s the question of “should we go down this road”? While I personally think the answer is “Hell Yes, Round up the Banksters!”, I’m certain that ‘following the money’ will open the door to more investigations.  Fraud may end in the foreclosure process, but it certainly didn’t start there.    The trail will certainly lead us past questionable practices regarding the mortgage backed securities, collateralized derivatives, credit default swaps, mortgage servicers, mortgage originators, home appraisers, builders, realtors, mortgage brokers, and yes, homeowners (there’s a variety of infographics here).

The fallout will likely include homeowners, stock markets, the entire domestic financial system, and the entire global economy.  Will renewed scrutiny and the likely fallout lengthen the Great Recession, or worse yet precipitate a Great Depression 2.0?