The chattering classes will be clucking this afternoon about Alabama Representative Parker Griffith’s defection to the Republican Party. While newsworthy, this is nothing surprising.
For starters, given the economy as well as a host of other factors, Democrats face an uphill challenge in 2010, with the consensus being the loss some of seats in the House and Senate. Retirements, party switches, and the like are regular occurrences at this point of the cycle. Furthermore, Griffith is a Freshman, and as such is much more susceptible to a fickle electorate (note that he won in 2008 in an uncontested race, and substantially outspent his rival). You’ll also note that Obama lost AL-5 to McCain by 23%, and that Griffith beat his Republican rival Wayne Parker (name recognition/confusion much?) by a mere 3.6%, with the seat being previously held by a Democrat (data via CQ).
Most interesting is the fact that Griffith is a doctor, as well as the location of his seat (Alabama), within the context of the healthcare reform fight. As you may recall, HCR has successfully passed the Senate on a party-line vote and now heads to the House. Griffith’s position as a doctor gives the GOP some credibility to weigh against the endorsement of the Senate’s HCR bill by the American Medical Association.
What makes the most sense, however, is a cursory glance of how Grffith has funded his political career – heavily based on contributions from the Health Industry.
The political trends in Alabama, Griffith’s status as doctor and ties to the healthcare industry, and caucus membership as a Conservative Blue Dog, makes Griffith’s switch a move out of fear and electoral survivability, and not ideological strength and fortitude. I would not be at all surprised if several of Rahm’s other loyal blue dogs leave the pack as well. It is also within the realm of possibly that the teabaggers could insist he be primaried anyway.
Tags: AL-5, Alabama, American Medical Association, healthcare industry, healthcare reform fight, Parker Griffith, Politicking, Republican Party, Senate, Wayne Parker
