Akkam’s Razor

There have been tinfoil encrusted reports that a tactical (small) nuke had gone off at Camp Falcon, with reports coming from Arab media like Al Jazeera.  The military press releases states all is well, and that the explosion was the result of conventional explosives being hit by mortar fire.  There are of course, other conflicting and unsubstantiated reports of 300 US dead and total destruction.  So which is it?

Camp Falcon is a Forward Operation Base (FOB) slightly north and west of Baghdad.  Reports have indicated that it is intended to be one of the permanent bases setup by the US Military.  The base is intended to house 5,000 soldiers, and currently is equiped with numerous tanks and helicopters (as well as ammunition).

The video of the blast is embedded below via YouTube:

CENTCOM press release:

FOB FALCON, Iraq – Less than 24 hours after enemy 82mm mortar rounds hit an ammunition holding area, causing a torrent of explosions and fires that continued to smolder through the next day, life on Forward Operating Base Falcon has retuned to normal.

     Despite triggering multiple explosions and causing fire crews to work overtime, there were no casualties, and little damage was sustained to the buildings and vehicles positioned throughout the large military base located in Baghdad’s Doura neighborhood, said Col. Michael Beech, commander, 4th Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division.

     With the help of seven Explosive Ordnance Disposal teams, the Soldiers at FOB Falcon were quickly able to locate and dispose of all unexploded ordnance near the explosion site, which enabled business to return to normal Thursday morning.

     "Ultimately, this incident has had a minimal effect on my brigade's operations within the last 24 hours," Beech said. "This attack did not effect ongoing Baghdad security operations in our area of responsibility, and the loss of ammunition will not degrade the operational capability of the 4th Brigade Combat Team.”

     The most damage occurred in areas directly surrounding the large steel shipping containers that held the various types of tank, artillery and small-arms ammunition, he said.

Here is a report from the "Quds Press" [presumingly translated and reposted on Roads to Iraq]:

US occupation forces accusing Iraqi translators of leaking information on the location of arms and ammunition depots in the falcon military base (Al-Rashid military base) to the resistance.

A source in the Iraqi army said in an interview with “Quds Press” that the American forces opened an investigation about how Iraqi resistance can target the weapons depots in such precision.   

The source continued:

“We are sure that two Iraqi translators working with US forces leaked information and gave the base altitudes to the resistance. There are also doubts that a third interpreter had left the base one day before the bombing only and did not join again”.

The Iraqi source, who refused to reveal his identity, said that dozens of American soldiers were killed in those explosions. The source pointed out that six Iraqi translators were killed in those explosions. American forces refused to hand over the bodies of the dead Iraqis to their families  without giving reasons.

Which leads one to ask if this would be the missing translator in question?

A U.S. soldier in Baghdad was reported missing late Monday, and residents said American forces sealed the central Karadah district and were conducting door-to-door searches. Other reports claimed he was an Army translator of Iraqi descent and was abducted.

A military official in Washington said the missing service member was a translator and that the initial report was he may have been abducted. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the information was not cleared for release.

An employee at Baghdad's al-Furat TV, which was raided by American forces earlier Monday, said the U.S. forces conducting the search told him they were looking for an abducted American officer of Iraqi descent.

I've heard this referred to as Iraq's Tet-Offensive, but that seems a little premature.  At the same time, the sudden change of posture and rhetoric coming out of the White House is curious…

[Updated] So there's a few interesting peripheral questions requiring answers…

• Initial DOD statements state there were 3k soldiers at the base.  Then this was changed to 100.  Which is correct? 
• How many civilian staff are at the base (normally a 10:1 ratio).  Are they all accounted for?
• How many tons of explosives (and of what varieties) were stored there and what would their equivalent TNT measure be?
• Are any of the units deployed (and their equipment) certified for tactical nuke (presumably via artillery) capable?  Does it make sense to stockpile in theater in advance of their use, and is Falcon too far away to strike into Iran?
• Can any nuke, and particularly a tactical nuke, be detonated via secondary explosions?  (Typically a nuclear reaction requires a highly specific and tightly controlled varietry of chain reactions in order for a nuclear reaction to occur.  These weapons don't "cook off" like other chemical-type explosive rounds).