Akkam’s Razor

I’m fairly comfortable stating the following predictions regarding the election. I base this after parsing the aggregate polls at fivethirtyeight as well as electoral-vote.

My logic was that any state where Obama has a lead of 10-points or greater could safely be assigned a Democratic win, with all others going to McCain. The 10-point margin assumes the presence of a “Bradley Effect” of 6-points and being on the high-side of the margin of error (usually 2.5-3.5%).

Under this scenario, the split for the Electoral College votes is 309 Obama, 229 McCain. This represents McCain’s best-case scenario.

The more-likely scenario, with Obama taking New Mexico, Georgia, and Florida, gives an outcome of 309-229, as pictured below (created with a screencap from 270towin):

The absolute worst case scenario, with Obama taking every state in which he has any measurable lead as of current polling, delivers a result of 415-123. If this should occur, be wary of falling Republicans.

The remaining uncertainties are the effect of cell-phones on polling, the specter of the Bradley Effect (and I suppose the Palin Effect), Republican voter-suppression efforts, the effect of early voting, the impact of new registrations, and turnout, particularly among minorities and youth.

Popularity: 6% [?]

see Sarah Palin pictures

It’s not even election day, and already the GOP is taking out the long knives. I’m unsure if McCain picked Palin as a stunt to woo the unicorns PUMAs, as a dog whistle to crazy-baselanders, or as a patsy for his increasingly probably defeat. In any case, the coalition of convenience formerly known as the GOP three legged stool of social conservatives, policy and pundit conservatives, and fiscal conservatives is rapidly coming off the rails. We can only hope that the GOP is too busy dealing with their own insurgents to pay attention to any of the real work getting done in picking up the pieces of eight-years of GOP-rule.

Popularity: 8% [?]

I’m not sure what’s more disturbing - that the McCain campaign may own the URL for VotefortheMilf.com (via FDL, C&L, and initially dKos), or that running Palin is a direct appeal to the horny white male vote, such as National Review Editor Rich Lowry.

Popularity: 4% [?]

At the conclusion of the last night’s debate, I contemplated the blog post I would write.  Do I get all high and mighty on Biden’s firm grasp on facts, issues, and policy, and thoroughly skewer Palin.  I ended up writing nothing - choosing to wait until the morning polls.

The conclusion of the McCain-Obama debate was truly one where there was no clear victor.  That was most definitely not the case last night.  Although Palin survived, merely exceeeding the soft bigotry of low expectations, Biden trounced her, clearly demonstrating that he is worthy of office.

This morning’s CNN poll provided as much validation as the non-scientific CNN-attention meter or hand-counting at the end of the debate.  Biden won by a significant margin.  But there were two polling points that absolutely rubbed me the wrong way.

My first area of concern is that 54% of respondents though Palin was more likable.  I suppose my outrage is that this question is even asked.  The country should be valuing competence, not with whom they’d most like to have a drink.

Secondly, CNN found that 84% of Americans thought Palin exceeded expectations.  The expectation was simply somewhere within the range of Tina Fey as Sarah Palin and Sarah Palin with Katie Couric.  Andrew Halco says the following of the master debater:

I’ve debated Governor Palin more than two dozen times. And she’s a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality. Against such charms there is little Senator Biden, or anyone, can do.”

What have we become?

This surely cannot be the America of history, of literature, and great American Rhetoric.   We are to be special, blessed by God and destined to save the world from evil.  Instead of aspiring to the pinnacle of our ability, we are satisfied with someone who looks like us and sounds like us.  We will continue this backslide into irrelevancy so long as we play to the lowest common denominator.  It’s not enough to like or identify with the candidate.  I want someone of better character, supreme intellect, and razor sharp analytical skills.  Not someone who looks like me, sounds like me, and mangles the English language like me.

Popularity: 5% [?]

• You Are Dumb | Sarah Palin Bingo - Offered exclusively from your friends at You Are Dumb Dot Net, SARAH PALIN BINGO lets you play along with your favorite cable news broadcast. Just get some tokens, watch the reporting, and mark off every scandal or horrifying policy position that gets mentioned! Get five in a row and you win! Plus, as a special bonus, since she's his "soul mate", John McCain is giving you the center square just for playing.

• Hurricane Ike Storm Surge Risk Maps | Wired Science from Wired.com -
• Energy Supply Logistics - Refineries -
• Shadow Governor? | AndrewHalcro.com - In the aftermath of the Walt Monegan firing, one question keeps surfacing over and over again; why does the governor's husband, Todd Palin appear to hold so much power?

  After all, Nancy Murkowski or Susan Knowles were never accused of pressuring a commissioner or inappropriately sitting in on meetings that should have been private.

  The stories started last year when Representative Ralph Samuels told me about going into a meeting, he thought would be private, with Governor Sarah Palin. Much to his surprise, Todd Palin was there and proceeded to sit through the entire meeting.

  Other lawmakers have shared similar stories and were shocked at how inappropriate Todd's presence was at meetings with the governor.

…and if they did, they’d probably agree with it.

Many of us are making a big deal out of Sarah Palin’s inability to articulate the paramount legacy of this White House - The Bush Doctrine [wiki]. Here is a partial transcript and video of her interview with Charlie Gibson of ABCNEWS (more at HuffPo):

GIBSON: Do you agree with the Bush doctrine? PALIN: In what respect, Charlie?

GIBSON: The Bush — well, what do you — what do you interpret it to be?

PALIN: His world view.

GIBSON: No, the Bush doctrine, enunciated September 2002, before the Iraq war.

PALIN: I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do is rid this world of Islamic extremism, terrorists who are hell bent on destroying our nation. There have been blunders along the way, though. There have been mistakes made. And with new leadership, and that’s the beauty of American elections, of course, and democracy, is with new leadership comes opportunity to do things better.

GIBSON: The Bush doctrine, as I understand it, is that we have the right of anticipatory self-defense, that we have the right to a preemptive strike against any other country that we think is going to attack us. Do you agree with that?

PALIN: Charlie, if there is legitimate and enough intelligence that tells us that a strike is imminent against American people, we have every right to defend our country. In fact, the president has the obligation, the duty to defend.

I’d like to make an effort to formally define the Bush Doctrine, to provide context for its existence, to examine its success, and to look at future challenges.

Regardless as to your political leanings, the Bush Doctrine exists for one reason and one reason only - to reinforce the Unitary Executive Theory, weakening what, to this point, had been the sole responsibility of Congress over the Executive Branch - the ability to declare war. Similarly, it seeks to remove any external, non-domestic restrictions by foreign bodies over US actions, including international agreements and treaties. In short, the US, as the sole remaining superpower (after the fall of the Soviet Union) would have the justification for acting unilaterally against any threat. This is further quantified by allowing the ability to wage preemptive war against perceived threats both in the near- and long-terms. In short, it means never having to say you are sorry.

Popularity: 9% [?]

• Pew Research Center: McCain’s Image Improves - With Big Assist From Palin -
• Winner of the Personal Visualization Project is… | FlowingData -
• Palin Warned to Stop Disparaging Sister’s Ex | Newsweek Politics: Campaign 2008 | Newsweek.com - Court records obtained by NEWSWEEK show that during the course of divorce hearings three years ago, Judge John Suddock heard testimony from an official of the Alaska State Troopers' union about how Sarah Palin—then a private citizen—and members of her family, including her father and daughter, lodged up to a dozen complaints against Wooten with the state police. The union official told the judge that he had never before been asked to appear as a divorce-case witness, that the union believed family complaints against Wooten were "not job-related," and that Wooten was being "harassed" by Palin and other family members.