Akkam’s Razor

There’s a Democratic-sponsored attack ad that is somewhat unfair to Ridley Park native, University of Pennsylvania graduate, and Army veteran of both Iraq and Bosnia that makes somewhat unfair and groundless criticism of 26-year old baby-faced Miccarelli.

The ad, which I’ve only seen aired once on local (Delco) cable-TV hits Miccarelli for inaction regarding actions, both Congressional and Presidential that had effect on Delaware County.  The ad knocks Miccarelli for not taking action, either by advocating as leader of the College Republicans or as a campaign aid to intervene.  Of course, this is unfair.  In 2004, Miccarelli, although already a veteran, was merely 23, and serving on a variety of campaigns.  Although he made have had access to a handful of political decisionmakers, the influence of Miccarelli was essentially no more than that of the average Delco constituent.  Furthermore, the need to burnish his political resume and cultivate ideological bonafides means that he in no way could deviate from the company line.

see Sarah Palin pictures

It’s not even election day, and already the GOP is taking out the long knives. I’m unsure if McCain picked Palin as a stunt to woo the unicorns PUMAs, as a dog whistle to crazy-baselanders, or as a patsy for his increasingly probably defeat. In any case, the coalition of convenience formerly known as the GOP three legged stool of social conservatives, policy and pundit conservatives, and fiscal conservatives is rapidly coming off the rails. We can only hope that the GOP is too busy dealing with their own insurgents to pay attention to any of the real work getting done in picking up the pieces of eight-years of GOP-rule.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Here’s the headline for the article:

AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks

Followed by the ‘lede’ and following paragraph:

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain’s “Joe the plumber” analogy struck a chord.

Our friends on the right have been talking non-stop about ACORN, and how the 1.3 million newly registered voters, mostly minority and lower-income, are a threat to the integrity of our voting process.  Billmon, writing at dKos, ably establishes how the right will blame ACORN for any GOP defeat.  The Republican’s friends in the media are gladly echoing those claims,  while not mentioning the immense number of voters institutionally disenfranchised via voter suppression by the various national, state, and local Republican mechanisms in advance of the election.  We’re talking about 10-times the voters, some 13 million and counting.  Sadly, GOP vote suppression looks to be below the radar for the press.

First off, the die has been cast. No matter how much money we’ve thrown at the situation, it will simply have the effect of taking your shoes off at the airport - creating an illusion of safety. Post-bailout, we will have $1.3T reasons to feel that all will be well, and that the disaster has passed. But those will be illusions.

The more we hear about the non-vetting of Sarah Palin, the more desperate the McCain camp appears. Here’s my take on what happened.

McCain would have preferred Tom Ridge or Joe Lieberman. The “enthusiasm gap” - the lack of excitement and engagement of Evangelicals threatens to subdue turnout, guaranteeing a McCain loss - made neither of those choices palpable. Ridge was wholly unacceptable to “the base” due to his being pro-choice. Lieberman, however, was clearly the pick of the Neocons; his choice would likely cause Rush Limbaugh to relapse. A pick of Lieberman would essentially cede domestic policy back to the Democrats.

I’ve long wondered how our country’s recent obsession with gambling and card games would affect our society, politics, and business. With my cursory understanding of the games, I suppose it may have taught players a little about ‘reading’ non-verbal tells, deducing whether someone was bluffing, and maybe a cursory lesson in statistics regarding probability and game theory. Indeed, when looking at recent political discussion, the phrase “double-down” has been seen over and over.

[Doubling Down] is a bet that can be placed if the player thinks that with only one more card drawn he will be able to beat the dealer. After the Double Down bet is taken the player is allowed one more card only, and then has to stand.

McCain has a history of gambling, and for the most part, those gambles have paid off.

He appears to have doubled-down yet again, holding nothing more than 3 POW cards and 2 Queens.

Popularity: 4% [?]

The GOP mascot should be a parrot - they repeat whatever talk radio, Foxnews, and the punditocracy says.  Hence the “extreme liberal” Krugman.  The there is the adherence to  faith-based economics.  They’ve heard the hagiography on Reagan so many times that whatever has been said is accepted, facts be damned.  Besides, one could argue that Jodie Foster was actually responsible for the tax cuts and subsequent growth.