Posts Tagged: Joe Biden


30
Oct 08

Early Tuesday Night Presidential Predictions

I’m fairly comfortable stating the following predictions regarding the election. I base this after parsing the aggregate polls at fivethirtyeight as well as electoral-vote.

My logic was that any state where Obama has a lead of 10-points or greater could safely be assigned a Democratic win, with all others going to McCain. The 10-point margin assumes the presence of a “Bradley Effect” of 6-points and being on the high-side of the margin of error (usually 2.5-3.5%).

Under this scenario, the split for the Electoral College votes is 309 Obama, 229 McCain. This represents McCain’s best-case scenario.

The more-likely scenario, with Obama taking New Mexico, Georgia, and Florida, gives an outcome of 309-229, as pictured below (created with a screencap from 270towin):

The absolute worst case scenario, with Obama taking every state in which he has any measurable lead as of current polling, delivers a result of 415-123. If this should occur, be wary of falling Republicans.

The remaining uncertainties are the effect of cell-phones on polling, the specter of the Bradley Effect (and I suppose the Palin Effect), Republican voter-suppression efforts, the effect of early voting, the impact of new registrations, and turnout, particularly among minorities and youth.


3
Oct 08

American Unexceptionalism

At the conclusion of the last night’s debate, I contemplated the blog post I would write.  Do I get all high and mighty on Biden’s firm grasp on facts, issues, and policy, and thoroughly skewer Palin.  I ended up writing nothing – choosing to wait until the morning polls.

The conclusion of the McCain-Obama debate was truly one where there was no clear victor.  That was most definitely not the case last night.  Although Palin survived, merely exceeeding the soft bigotry of low expectations, Biden trounced her, clearly demonstrating that he is worthy of office.

This morning’s CNN poll provided as much validation as the non-scientific CNN-attention meter or hand-counting at the end of the debate.  Biden won by a significant margin.  But there were two polling points that absolutely rubbed me the wrong way.

My first area of concern is that 54% of respondents though Palin was more likable.  I suppose my outrage is that this question is even asked.  The country should be valuing competence, not with whom they’d most like to have a drink.

Secondly, CNN found that 84% of Americans thought Palin exceeded expectations.  The expectation was simply somewhere within the range of Tina Fey as Sarah Palin and Sarah Palin with Katie Couric.  Andrew Halco says the following of the master debater:

I’ve debated Governor Palin more than two dozen times. And she’s a master, not of facts, figures, or insightful policy recommendations, but at the fine art of the nonanswer, the glittering generality. Against such charms there is little Senator Biden, or anyone, can do.”

What have we become?

This surely cannot be the America of history, of literature, and great American Rhetoric.   We are to be special, blessed by God and destined to save the world from evil.  Instead of aspiring to the pinnacle of our ability, we are satisfied with someone who looks like us and sounds like us.  We will continue this backslide into irrelevancy so long as we play to the lowest common denominator.  It’s not enough to like or identify with the candidate.  I want someone of better character, supreme intellect, and razor sharp analytical skills.  Not someone who looks like me, sounds like me, and mangles the English language like me.


10
Sep 08

Daily Links for September 9th

  • FRAMESHOP by Jeffrey Feldman – To really see what that ad does, we need to realize that from that point forward the election of 1984 was not so much about votes looking at Ronald Reagan or Walter Mondale. It was about each person looking at an idealized image of the perfect nuclear family, surrounded by a white fence, in a state of perfect bliss while doing the most mundane and ordinary things–and it was about which party they thought about when those feelings came over them. That 1984 ad was so effective that I suspect it is the real reason why Barack Obama has not been able to pull ahead of John McCain in the polls. There are still millions of Americans fixated on that ad–millions of voters who, when they look at the 2008 Presidential election, do not see John McCain or Barack Obama or Joe Biden or Sarah Palin. They see the white picket fence, the old man in the blue sweater, the perfect lawn, the blissful little girl skipping along.

29
Aug 08

Daily Links for August 28th


27
Aug 08

Daily Links for August 25th through August 27th

  • Joe Bageant: Moving to the Center of Elite Consensus – What voters are expected to believe is that after a 30-year class war against the bottom 90% of income earners, the source of their troubles are black rappers and inner city fathers and not criminality on Wall Street or a corrupt political system. The road to the White House over the past 30 years has been paved by pretending to believe the absurdity that the individuals who pull the levers of power over people's lives are named Willie Horton, Sister Souljah and Ludicrous, and not Robert Rubin, Phil Gramm and Hank Paulson.

24
Aug 08

O’Biden 2008

ABC News provides a Nightly News segment introducing the nation to Joe Biden:

YouTube Preview Image

His dominant positive characteristic is also his greatest weakness – the propensity to speak his mind. Fortunately, it has had a positive outcome, with Biden leveraging the latest McCain gaffe of not knowing how many houses he owns into a zinger soundbite [via TPM]:

“Your kitchen table is like mine, you sit there at night after you put the kids to bed and you talk about what you need. That’s not a worry John McCain has to worry about. He’ll have to figure out which of the seven kitchen tables to sit at.”

Early polling data shows Biden has minimally affected Obama’s chances, although there are some interesting data points.  Simply put, it wasn’t much of a surprise to the press nor a game changer for the American voter.  Expect much more attention to be paid to John McCain’s choice for Veep, particularly in regards to age, religiosity,  and temperament.  In the meantime, expect the media narrative to focus on the disgruntled (and manufactured) former-Hillary supporters who back McCain over Obama, and the coincidentally-themed advertising from the McCain Camp.

Many in the liberal blogosphere are somewhat “meh” (see Hullaballoo, All Spin Zone, Firedoglake, and the G-Spot) with regards to Biden.  He was my personal favorite, although I could have lived with Hillary if need be.  All told, Biden is Obama’s best choice, bringing to the campaign a compelling personal story, Republican supporters in Congress, a variety of American electoral firsts, and a geographical demographic advantage.

I look forward to the Veep debates between Biden and McCain’s probable pick, Willard Mitt Romney.


25
Jan 07

Chuck Hagel: A Respectable Republican.

He's like John McCain, but with integrity.

Here's Hagel chiding the Republicans unwilling to buck the authority of Dick Cheney and the White House:

What do you believe? What are you willing to support? What do you think? Why were you elected?

If you wanted a safe job, go sell shoes. This is a tough business. But is it any tougher, us having to take a tough vote, express ourselves and have the courage to step up on what we’re asking our young men and women to do?

I don’t think so.

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