Akkam’s Razor

Where to begin? For starters, Dear Leader provides proof positive of exactly how bad things are, reiterating that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself“. The comments are not very Presidential and are sure to shake the confidence of both the American people, institutions, and our global partners.

Bush’s dire words will have consequences. For starters, there’s this little bit of great news from China [Reuters] followed by a swift reversal/denial [also Reuters]:

Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.

Make no mistake, it is coming. They are clearly in panic mode [nakedcapitalism via Economist's View]:

“We have lost control,” said Hale, quoting [Federal Reserve Chairman] Bernanke. “We cannot stabilize the dollar. We cannot control commodity prices.”

(Please note that they really could never control it anyway, regardless).

The NYT says:

The head of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve began discussions on Thursday with Congressional leaders on what could become the biggest bailout in United States history. While details remain to be worked out, the plan is likely to authorize the government to buy distressed mortgages at deep discounts from banks and other institutions. The proposal could result in the most direct commitment of taxpayer funds so far in the financial crisis that Fed and Treasury officials say is the worst they have ever seen.

This cannot turn out well.  Via Economist View (emphasis mine):

I want to question one thing in these remarks. There are considerable lags between the time a policy is put into place and the time the policy takes effect, e.g. as long as a year and a half before the peak impact of the policy is felt on GDP and the effects of policy shocks can persit for as long as three years. Recessions can occur much faster than this and the idea that the Fed can always respond in time to catch any downward movement in activity fails to recognize the length of these lags and the uncertainty we have about them (see Jim Hamilton at econbrowser for more on this). I find the attitude that ‘The economy doesn’t typically move so rapidly that it would get away from us,” surprising from a Fed official.

The Federal Reserve suddenly and without adequate explanation dropped the collection and reporting of a significant measure of the monetary supply, M3.  Haven’t had a chance to go through the thread and self educate myself yet.