September 29th, 2008 · 1 Comment
Yesterday was one of the few times my wife engaged me on politics and economics. (If anything, she usually chastises me for being too interested). She plainly asked me what’s going on and what it means for us. She asked if I thought it would be like the Great Depression, with people out of work, waiting in line at soup kitchens. I reflexively answered yes, and then spelled out my rationale.
After having the time to reflect on the question, my answers, the bailout, and the landscape as I see it, I can now say that I may have been wrong.
Popularity: 6% [?]
[Read more →]
Tags: Government · Politics
- Democratic Dominoes: A Guest Post - Freakonomics - Opinion - New York Times Blog - In a recent paper, co-author Andrea Dean and I investigate whether democratic dominoes like the ones American foreign policy posits actually exist and, if they do, how “hard” they fall.
Does democracy really spread between countries? If so, how much? We find that democratic dominoes do in fact exist, but they fall significantly “lighter” than foreign policy applications of this principle pretend.
Countries only “catch” about 11 percent of their geographic neighbors’ average changes in democracy; the modesty of this spread rate is consistent over time. Our analysis extends back to 1850, but 150-plus years ago, like today, changes in countries’ democracies were only mildly contagious.
[Read more →]
Tags: Uncategorized
August 27th, 2008 · 1 Comment
I had a Revelation of sorts regarding my thesis (capstone) walking to work from the train. But let me back up a bit.
As my train got closer to the city, a person, similar to my own age, sat down next to me. A sideways glance at his reading material revealed Joe Bagent’s [blog] Deer Hunting with Jesus [Amazon].
Bagent is one of those writers that I find irresistible. Simple prose, powerful imagery, and accessible anecdotes.
We starting chatting - he revealed to me that his wife had bought him the book, as it reflected his own West Virginian upbringing as the child of a Blue Collar father who labored in the steel industry, while his mother stayed at home raising the kids. The conversation eventually progressed to a mutual agreement that the world as we know has ended, and the successes enjoyed by his family were not likely to be repeated. we are looking over the precipice anticipating what is next, who will lead us there, and how we will get there. Our outlook was mostly grim and bordering on apathy. I left the train with an analogy - regardless as to which candidate is elected, the country is going over a cliff. The only difference will be how fast we are going and how quickly we hit the bottom. Our obstacle is the American story, and the realities of American Culture - neither of which will allow for what we must do to be accomplished. Somehow, we have to use what we have to “git ‘er done”.
I’m a big fan of Russell Ackoff’s seminal story from Idealized Design [Amazon], where an engineering executive of Bell Labs tells his direct reports that “the phone system of the United States was destroyed last night”, summarized here:
About ten minutes after the hour, the door to the room squeaked open. All eyes turned to it, and there he was. He was obviously very upset. He was a pasty gray and bent over as he slowly shuffled down the aisle without a word to anyone. He mounted the platform, stood behind the podium, put his elbows on it, and held his head in his two hands, looking down.The room was dead silent. Finally, he looked up and in an uncharacteristically meek voice said, “Gentlemen, the telephone system of the United States was destroyed last night.” Then he looked down again.
Popularity: 5% [?]
[Read more →]
Tags: Uncategorized
Conventional wisdom is that Americans are slow to change their lifestyle in the face of adversity. This evidence from USA Today suggests otherwise:
Americans drove 30 billion fewer miles from November through April than during the same period in 2006-07, the biggest such drop since the Iranian revolution led to gasoline supply shortages in 1979-80.
[…]
“It’s not a blip,” said Marilyn Brown, professor of energy policy at Georgia Tech, citing data showing surging transit ridership, dropping sales of sport-utility vehicles and sharply increased demand for gas-efficient vehicles. “I think the difference between now and 1979, when prices were comparable when you adjust for inflation, is there’s a sense of sustained pain. There’s a sense that the era of cheap energy is a thing of the past.”
[Read more →]
Tags: Uncategorized
-
-
[New weapon] spending is concentrated among the biggest consumers [and producers] of resources, which are trying to protect their [energy interests] at a rate that would have been unthinkable for a developing country until recently.
-
Whatever the final expert opinion may be, rather than being the frog in slowly heated up water, it should be mandatory for us to prepare and run through a checklist to see how well prepared we are.
[Read more →]
Tags: Daily Links
-
-
American manhood is in crisis, judging by a surge of manifestos such as The Decline of Men, The Disposable Male, and Save the Males. Performing his own culture check, from High Noon to The Simpsons, the author crashes the pity party.
-
Statistics at a Glance provides the latest quarterly and historical data for FDIC-insured institutions, the BIF and SAIF insurance funds, and the number of FDIC employees beginning with the June 2001 issue.
[Read more →]
Tags: Daily Links
-
“I will tell (you) how to break into a nuclear reactor,” Ira Winkler, president of security firm ISAG said as he launched into his presentation on “How to Take Down the Power Grid” at RSA 2008 on Tuesday night.
-
UC Irvine researchers have provided new insight into blog readers’ online habits and experiences, as well as how they perceive their roles in blog-based communities.
[Read more →]
Tags: Daily Links
-
-
This week, UC Berkeley professor Paul Duguid squared off in a debate with provocateur Andrew Keen (author of the flimsy bestseller, The Cult of Amateur). At issue here is the question: “Is the Web 2.0 a Threat to Our Culture?” How did the well-attended de
-
[Read more →]
Tags: Daily Links
