Akkam’s Razor

Mark Nickolas has posted that Hillary needs to run for President of Appalachia, confirmed by her strong performance last night in West Virginia. It is tempting to disregard this electoral preference on surface faultline demography like race, age, poorest, or education, but Josh Marshall at TPM hints at something more.

Any voter who is demographically reflective-of or self-identifies as a Reagan-Democrat (coined by political consultant and Hillary pollster Stan Greenberg) will be referred to as a Bush-Democrat.  Although they are many, they must be constantly reminded of their legacy in perpetrating the Revisionist Reagan haigiography, and of the failure of their particular brand of conservatism.  If these Bush Democrats (or as Pat Buchanan rightfully observes, Hillary Democrats) decide to vote against their own economic self-interests and switch to McSame, let them reap the ‘rewards’.

You can’t tell me that St. BBQ, the maverick of campaign finance reform, doesn’t know explicitly how to game the rules that he helped author.

You can’t tell me that Bernake’s academic focus of research on the Great Depression wasn’t a factor in his selection as leader of the Fed.

You can’t tell me that the decision to stop reporting M3 is not at all reflective of the need to inflate us out of our current financial dilemma.

You can’t tell me that no one could have foretold the current economic crisis while the debate regarding bankruptcy reform was going on in Congress in 2005.

My oh my! Which one of the many things might they be looking for?

Destruction of evidence? Peripheral information related to violations of the Hatch Act? Or possibly related to the December 7th “date of infamy” for the eight fired US Attorneys? Or something related to intolerant US Attorney Rachel Paulrose? Jeb Bush associates and Katrina pumps in New Orleans? Or possibly Bloch’s own ethical lapses? Or Bloch’s investigation into Karl Rove’s politicization of everything?

The mind reels at the possibilities!

Krugman says:

[The] gas tax holiday is not, in my view, a good idea. But the furor over what is, when all is said and done, a small and temporary policy proposal is entirely disproportionate. What’s going on?

[…]

[E]conomists talk much more about trade than they do about health care policy, because they think they know something about it in a way the laity don’t.

The gas tax holiday is in this category. Economists really do know something about tax incidence that the laity don’t. So when a presidential candidate says something that conflicts with economistic wisdom, it becomes THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE EVER. Except, you know, it isn’t.

I told you so - the economists are too elite.  The only supporter for her gas tax holiday plan (also pitched by Republican John McCain) she could find - Steve Elmendorf - is an Oil Co. lobbyist.

In light of the first of the stimulus checks being deposited into Americans accounts, it is high time we discussed the previous old next new conservative outrage - Freeloaders!

Our friends on the right have quietly been condemning the freeloaders who will be receiving stimulus rebates, despite having paid no income tax, previously referred as Lucky Ducks in the Wall Street Journal (note how Awesome it is to be making $12k annually and paying no Federal Income Tax).

The Tax Foundation describes it thusly:

I’ve been hearing a lot about hoarding, rationing, or shortages of some food products - mostly rice, but also flour and cooking oil.  Even the Wall Street Journal is talking like its Y2K!

Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.

Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.

And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They’re all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.

These are trends that have been in place for some time.

And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.

The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.

Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on.

What if something else is afoot?  What if it’s manipulation and/or speculation? Consider the following:

• Both production and supply are constant (one could argue China, our main source of rice, might keep crop for domestic consumption or switch to a more lucrative cash crop, but there’s no evidence for that).
• There could be anxiety at the wholesale level (as there has been with flour amongst bakers and pizza shops), causing a ‘rice-run’ at retailers.
• Consumers could be tuned-in to news on the subject and stockpiling (how likely could that be?)
• Or, it could be good, old fashioned pump-and-dump manipulation.

I recall that the most common way prices can be driven up (or maintained) is through scarcity - increasing demand or cutting supply.  Since production and demand seem rather constant, what other explanations are there?  Barry Ritholtz at Big Picture casts a suspicious eye towards the Federal Reserve.  Tim F. at Ballon Juice opines as well.  Angry Bear argues too-low interest rates versus demand outstripping supply.

As stated, it appears Hillary is the winner (as declared by FOX - unsure whether that is the national network or local channel).

Sadly, all that talk of Pennsylvania’s primary finally meaning something really means that Indiana’s primary will finally mean something. It appears that Hillary’s win will likely result in a net-gain of a dozen or so delegates, still putting her behind Obama in total delegates.

The electoral math essentially remains unchanged. As Eli at Firedoglake mentions, Hillary is still 144 delegates behind (requiring 63% of the 566 remaining delegates to seize the nomination), and that her financial situation is precarious.

Some learnings from the chicken entrails exit polls:

I was going to give a long diatribe into my endorsement for the Primaries.

Flickr photo from user damonabnormal.

I’ll keep it short. Obama.

To me, this primary (and election) is not about education, opportunity, age, gender, or race. It’s not about terrorism, the war, the economy, the environment, or health care. It’s not about blue versus red, godless versus pious, or coastal versus heartland. It’s not about bowling, or coffee, or liquor. It’s not about torture, lies, or corruption. It is not about God, gays, and guns. It’s not about Pastors, lapel pins, or affiliations.

Simply put, I believe that this country is at a crossroads. We are being tested.

All of the institutions created some 230-plus years ago are faltering, have been weakened or gamed out of existence. The civic fabric of our nation is coming apart.

The social contract of citizenship has been undermined as the middle-class has been squeezed financially, while being told that their problems are largely psychological, and that values are most important. We have been told we’re winning the war, the economy is fine, the worst of the economic downturn is behind us, there is no emergent food crisis, inflation is under control, and that unemployment is low. Our military is fine, thank you, you only need listen to the generals, and is not under threat of breaking.

I want to be inspired, not led. I want to vote for optimism and change, not pessimism, triangulation, and the maintenance of an un-viable status quo. I want a candidate not running on the fumes of the past, or who feels their Presidency is a foregone conclusion and birthright. I want a candidate that can be easily removed via primary challenge in four years if need be, not one entrenched by the party system.

I say I’m for Obama, and will also state that I don’t think he bests Hillary in Pennsylvania (I think she wins with a less than 10-point spread). I may be throwing away my vote, but it’s my vote to waste.

Everyone, please remember that if you are a first time voter in Pennsylvania, you will have to show identification (state ID, voters registration, utility bill, etc.).

Secondly, even if you are a Republican or an Independent, there are still state-wide races (such as Treasurer) that you can vote in. Republicans can also write in their Democratic candidate of choice on the GOP side as well. Voters guides are available from Philly.com, the League of Young Voters, the League of Women Voters, and, for serious Catholics, here.

f you are anyone you know is not sure where to vote today, you can use the State Portal to find out.

If you run into polling place problems, you can visit VoterStory to file a report with several watchdog organizations.

If you are wondering who your favorite local bloggers are endorsing, you can browse them here at PhillyFuture.

Update: If you’re a Philadelphian, don’t forget about the ballot questions!

At the very bottom of recent stories announcing the need for expanded staffing at the FDIC by 60%, with an emphasis of recruiting S&L Crisis veterans (WSJ, subscription required), was a sentence stating the following:

There are 76 banks on the FDIC’s “problem institutions” list - which would equate to about 10 expected bank failures this year. About six banks fail per year on average, FDIC officials said.