Akkam’s Razor

America: Fix it or leave it.

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Sh!t, I’d like to introduce you to Fan…

September 25th, 2008 · No Comments

Where to begin? For starters, Dear Leader provides proof positive of exactly how bad things are, reiterating that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself. The comments are not very Presidential and are sure to shake the confidence of both the American people, institutions, and our global partners.

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Bush’s dire words will have consequences. For starters, there’s this little bit of great news from China [Reuters] followed by a swift reversal/denial [also Reuters]:

Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.

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Tags: Crisis · Economics · Election08 · Government · Polling

Who cares? The majority of America doesn’t know what the ‘Bush Doctrine’ is…

September 12th, 2008 · 6 Comments

…and if they did, they’d probably agree with it.

Many of us are making a big deal out of Sarah Palin’s inability to articulate the paramount legacy of this White House - The Bush Doctrine [wiki]. Here is a partial transcript and video of her interview with Charlie Gibson of ABCNEWS (more at HuffPo):

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GIBSON: Do you agree with the Bush doctrine? PALIN: In what respect, Charlie?

GIBSON: The Bush — well, what do you — what do you interpret it to be?

PALIN: His world view.

GIBSON: No, the Bush doctrine, enunciated September 2002, before the Iraq war.

PALIN: I believe that what President Bush has attempted to do is rid this world of Islamic extremism, terrorists who are hell bent on destroying our nation. There have been blunders along the way, though. There have been mistakes made. And with new leadership, and that’s the beauty of American elections, of course, and democracy, is with new leadership comes opportunity to do things better.

GIBSON: The Bush doctrine, as I understand it, is that we have the right of anticipatory self-defense, that we have the right to a preemptive strike against any other country that we think is going to attack us. Do you agree with that?

PALIN: Charlie, if there is legitimate and enough intelligence that tells us that a strike is imminent against American people, we have every right to defend our country. In fact, the president has the obligation, the duty to defend.

I’d like to make an effort to formally define the Bush Doctrine, to provide context for its existence, to examine its success, and to look at future challenges.

Regardless as to your political leanings, the Bush Doctrine exists for one reason and one reason only - to reinforce the Unitary Executive Theory, weakening what, to this point, had been the sole responsibility of Congress over the Executive Branch - the ability to declare war. Similarly, it seeks to remove any external, non-domestic restrictions by foreign bodies over US actions, including international agreements and treaties. In short, the US, as the sole remaining superpower (after the fall of the Soviet Union) would have the justification for acting unilaterally against any threat. This is further quantified by allowing the ability to wage preemptive war against perceived threats both in the near- and long-terms. In short, it means never having to say you are sorry.

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Tags: Uncategorized

As Usual, the Internet Trumps ‘the news’ in times of disaster.

May 12th, 2008 · No Comments

The Chinese earthquake in Sichuan Province (with an epicenter about 90km away from Chengdu) became personal today while talking to a Chinese staffer today. I shared with her some of the observed tactics I’ve seen regarding technology and disasters - such as use of IM and SMS to reach people.

It appears that the internet is doing a fine job of keeping people connected and informed, as it had during 9/11, the Madrid and London bombings, the 2005 Tsunami, and the Virginia Tech Shootings.

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Tags: News

Commodities [Rice]: Supply and Demand Scarcity or Pump and Dump?

April 25th, 2008 · No Comments

I’ve been hearing a lot about hoarding, rationing, or shortages of some food products - mostly rice, but also flour and cooking oil.  Even the Wall Street Journal is talking like its Y2K!

Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.

Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.

And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They’re all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.

These are trends that have been in place for some time.

And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.

The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.

Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on.

What if something else is afoot?  What if it’s manipulation and/or speculation? Consider the following:

  • Both production and supply are constant (one could argue China, our main source of rice, might keep crop for domestic consumption or switch to a more lucrative cash crop, but there’s no evidence for that).
  • There could be anxiety at the wholesale level (as there has been with flour amongst bakers and pizza shops), causing a ‘rice-run’ at retailers.
  • Consumers could be tuned-in to news on the subject and stockpiling (how likely could that be?)
  • Or, it could be good, old fashioned pump-and-dump manipulation.

I recall that the most common way prices can be driven up (or maintained) is through scarcity - increasing demand or cutting supply.  Since production and demand seem rather constant, what other explanations are there?  Barry Ritholtz at Big Picture casts a suspicious eye towards the Federal Reserve.  Tim F. at Ballon Juice opines as well.  Angry Bear argues too-low interest rates versus demand outstripping supply.

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Tags: Consumer Behavior · Economics · Election08 · Government · Politics

Going Meta on ‘The Experience Problem’ [Iraq, the Election, Andrew Keen, and the Internet]

March 12th, 2008 · No Comments

Once again, there is a discussion spanning multiple disciplines that requires attention regarding the importance and relevance of experience.

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Tags: · Economics · Education · Election08 · Government · News · OpEd · Organizational Dynamics · Philosophy · Politics · Polling · Psychology

Daily Links

February 22nd, 2008 · 2 Comments

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Daily Links

February 20th, 2008 · No Comments

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Daily Links

February 18th, 2008 · No Comments

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