Akkam’s Razor

You can’t tell me that St. BBQ, the maverick of campaign finance reform, doesn’t know explicitly how to game the rules that he helped author.

You can’t tell me that Bernake’s academic focus of research on the Great Depression wasn’t a factor in his selection as leader of the Fed.

You can’t tell me that the decision to stop reporting M3 is not at all reflective of the need to inflate us out of our current financial dilemma.

You can’t tell me that no one could have foretold the current economic crisis while the debate regarding bankruptcy reform was going on in Congress in 2005.

My oh my! Which one of the many things might they be looking for?

Destruction of evidence? Peripheral information related to violations of the Hatch Act? Or possibly related to the December 7th “date of infamy” for the eight fired US Attorneys? Or something related to intolerant US Attorney Rachel Paulrose? Jeb Bush associates and Katrina pumps in New Orleans? Or possibly Bloch’s own ethical lapses? Or Bloch’s investigation into Karl Rove’s politicization of everything?

The mind reels at the possibilities!

Popularity: 5% [?]

Krugman says:

[The] gas tax holiday is not, in my view, a good idea. But the furor over what is, when all is said and done, a small and temporary policy proposal is entirely disproportionate. What’s going on?

[...]

[E]conomists talk much more about trade than they do about health care policy, because they think they know something about it in a way the laity don’t.

The gas tax holiday is in this category. Economists really do know something about tax incidence that the laity don’t. So when a presidential candidate says something that conflicts with economistic wisdom, it becomes THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE EVER. Except, you know, it isn’t.

I told you so - the economists are too elite.  The only supporter for her gas tax holiday plan (also pitched by Republican John McCain) she could find - Steve Elmendorf - is an Oil Co. lobbyist.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Foxnews now confirms that convicted DC Madam Deborah Jeane Palfrey was found dead of a suspected suicide in Florida, as initially reported by their local affiliate. Palfrey was convicted on 4/15/2008 of money laundering, illegal use of the mail, and racketeering in the operation of her “high-quality fantasy service”, operated under the name of “Pamela Martin and Associates”. The investigation of her service resulted in the resignation of Randall Tobias from his position in the US Aid office, Harlan Ullman, the creator of the phrase “Shock-and-Awe”, and an admission of the use of her services by the “very sorry” Louisiana Congressman David Vitter, who is still in office. In the same time period, several additional White House resignations were tendered, apparently unrelated to the DC Madam. In the run-up to her trial, the US DOJ of Justice issued a gag order, stating that her phone records were in fact an asset, forbidding her from discussing (and profiting from) their contents. She intended to call her “johns” to the stand as part of her defense. The case has many interesting unexplored angles.

BC’s Brian Ross had initially said the following (reported at ThinkProgress, with video at Crooks and Liars):

“There are thousands of names, tens of thousands of phone numbers,” Ross said. “And there are people there at the Pentagon, lobbyists, others at the White House, prominent lawyers — a long, long list.” Ross added that the women who worked for the service, potentially as prostitutes, “include university professors, legal secretaries, scientists, military officers.”

ABCNEWS’ Brian Ross had acquired many pages of her cell phone records and had breathlessly pitched them as holding several major names, abruptly reversing course on the night that the 20/20 piece aired.

As usually is the case in Washington, much of it is dull. There are no members of Congress we can find in these phone numbers, no White House officials. Quite frankly, but for the few exceptions, most of the men on this list just aren’t newsworthy.

During that same time period, allegations were made that one of the highest persons in the Bush White House as well as an ABC news personality were allegedly affiliated with the list. Larry Flynt also got involved, at one point stating that he was following 20 Congressional leads, but no other names had come forward.

Other little nuggets of interest:

• Cryptome has the phone numbers in list format (note, also on Scribd as images. See this story on Newsvine regarding the crowdsourcing of the bills).
• Maggie Burns mentions what Ms. Palfrey was doing on 9/11, as deduced by the phone records.
• There is a very clever honeypot at dcphonelist.com which allows users to search for a phone number, highlighting suspect phone numbers. They display statistics for numbers of interest.
• This is not the first suicide related to the Madam.

Popularity: 7% [?]

As we speak, somewhere in this country, an oil industry lobbyist is whispering in the ears of Gooper Congresscritters, telling them that all those elitist economists don’t understand how much normal Americans need that $0.184 per gallon cut in Federal taxes in gasoline, facts be damned.

Popularity: 5% [?]

In light of the first of the stimulus checks being deposited into Americans accounts, it is high time we discussed the previous old next new conservative outrage - Freeloaders!

Our friends on the right have quietly been condemning the freeloaders who will be receiving stimulus rebates, despite having paid no income tax, previously referred as Lucky Ducks in the Wall Street Journal (note how Awesome it is to be making $12k annually and paying no Federal Income Tax).

The Tax Foundation describes it thusly:

I’ve been hearing a lot about hoarding, rationing, or shortages of some food products - mostly rice, but also flour and cooking oil.  Even the Wall Street Journal is talking like its Y2K!

Stocking up on food may not replace your long-term investments, but it may make a sensible home for some of your shorter-term cash. Do the math. If you keep your standby cash in a money-market fund you’ll be lucky to get a 2.5% interest rate. Even the best one-year certificate of deposit you can find is only going to pay you about 4.1%, according to Bankrate.com. And those yields are before tax.

Meanwhile the most recent government data shows food inflation for the average American household is now running at 4.5% a year.

And some prices are rising even more quickly. The latest data show cereal prices rising by more than 8% a year. Both flour and rice are up more than 13%. Milk, cheese, bananas and even peanut butter: They’re all up by more than 10%. Eggs have rocketed up 30% in a year. Ground beef prices are up 4.8% and chicken by 5.4%.

These are trends that have been in place for some time.

And if you are hoping they will pass, here’s the bad news: They may actually accelerate.

The reason? The prices of many underlying raw materials have risen much more quickly still. Wheat prices, for example, have roughly tripled in the past three years.

Sooner or later, the food companies are going to have to pass those costs on.

What if something else is afoot?  What if it’s manipulation and/or speculation? Consider the following:

• Both production and supply are constant (one could argue China, our main source of rice, might keep crop for domestic consumption or switch to a more lucrative cash crop, but there’s no evidence for that).
• There could be anxiety at the wholesale level (as there has been with flour amongst bakers and pizza shops), causing a ‘rice-run’ at retailers.
• Consumers could be tuned-in to news on the subject and stockpiling (how likely could that be?)
• Or, it could be good, old fashioned pump-and-dump manipulation.

I recall that the most common way prices can be driven up (or maintained) is through scarcity - increasing demand or cutting supply.  Since production and demand seem rather constant, what other explanations are there?  Barry Ritholtz at Big Picture casts a suspicious eye towards the Federal Reserve.  Tim F. at Ballon Juice opines as well.  Angry Bear argues too-low interest rates versus demand outstripping supply.

Popularity: 6% [?]