Polling


4
Jan 10

Education Policy Disagreements in My Household

My wife – a special education school teacher – and I have a bit of a policy disagreement regarding teacher merit pay.

Most can agree that our Education System is broken (see anything by John Taylor Gatto) and some sort of reform is necessary (even if it rankles some of the President’s core constituents).  Sometimes that change can only be motivated through monetary incentives.  On the macro-level, I can see the potential benefits.  On the micro-level, it’s likely that her students may not ever achieve sufficiently for her to earn said bonuses.


2
Nov 09

Carpet Teabaggers

If I lived in NY-23,  I don’t know how happy I would be about the wingnut-and-teabagger circus parachuting-in and interfering in provincial politics (wherein I agree with Newt Gingrich!).   At this point, it really is a pointless race for the Democrats, not in that it isn’t winnable, but that no matter what happens it’s bad news for the GOP.  Incumbents in the Northeast get reelected because they deliver and/or avoid scandal, not because they engage in the far-right jihads of Mrs. Palin, Beck, et. al.   After all, NY-23 delivered for Obama by 5-points.


25
Sep 08

Sh!t, I’d like to introduce you to Fan…

Where to begin? For starters, Dear Leader provides proof positive of exactly how bad things are, reiterating that “we have nothing to fear but fear itself. The comments are not very Presidential and are sure to shake the confidence of both the American people, institutions, and our global partners.

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Bush’s dire words will have consequences. For starters, there’s this little bit of great news from China [Reuters] followed by a swift reversal/denial [also Reuters]:

Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.


12
Mar 08

Going Meta on ‘The Experience Problem’ [Iraq, the Election, Andrew Keen, and the Internet]

Once again, there is a discussion spanning multiple disciplines that requires attention regarding the importance and relevance of experience.


9
Jan 08

Thought on McCain, Going into South Carolina

There's a VERY legitimate argument that both Romney, Giuliani, as well as the Democrats, if they are smart, should be having with regards to McCain…

He's already hinted that he's likely to be a one-termer.  At the risk of practicing ageism or age discrimination, he's quite old.  His captivity as a POW has certainly had a physical effect on him (particularly melanoma), and if the claims of George W. Bush circa 2000 (8-years ago) are true, his mental health. 


8
Jan 08

Live Free or Die

The real story in New Hampshire will be turnout and share of the vote. NH registratlons are as follows:

Ind: 44%
Rep: 30%
Dem: 26%

The current polling indicates Independents breaking 2:1 for Democrats, which would give us:

Rep: 45%
Dem: 55%

I suspect NH plays a role in identifying how Independents will vote nationally, just like Iowa informs about rural voters. It will also serve to determine which messages (hope, change, experience, status quo, fear, etc.) resonate with those voters.

You can check the results from the Concord Monitor’s Primary Blog here.


15
Dec 07

Only one reasonable explanation left…They Knew!!1!

Nancy Pelosi takes impeachment off the table. We find that Democratic Leadership was aware of the waterboarding tapes. Most recently, Harry Reid appears to be dismissing Chris Dodd’s hold (a member of his own party, no less) on legislation which promises retroactive telecom immunity as related to domestic spying.

I had always assumed that BushCo distorted, lied, or just never disclosed to the opposition the shenanigans they were up to, which would be wholly consistent with their actions in the past.

I can understand being bought by lobbyist dollars. I can even rationalize (but not condone) allowing things to spillover into 2008. But why facillitate and condone their actions further?


24
Oct 07

Penn and Teller versus Opinion Polling

There's naughty language here, but as usual, Penn and Teller are correct, and Frank Luntz is an asshole.

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25
Sep 07

The Punditsphere Has Spoken

The Village (established DC beltway insiders) despises the bloggers, aka the netroots, and will take any chance to cut them down, especially since every word of Brooks, Broder, Cohen, Freidman, and the rest, gets eviscerated with each publishing of their latest sage advice. 

Let's examine Brook's latest (9/25):

Now it's evident that if you want to understand the future of the Democratic Party you can learn almost nothing from the bloggers, billionaires and activists on the left who make up the "netroots." You can learn most of what you need to know by paying attention to two different groups – high school educated women in the Midwest, and the old Clinton establishment in Washington.


6
Jul 07

GOP and Microtargeting: Good, Bad, or Meh?

A friend of mine sent me a link to a WaPo story on Mitt Romney's successor application to the GOP's Voter Vault.  The developer of the program, Alex Gage, provided his services to Ken Mehlman, then chair of the RNC, and Karl Rove.

His pitch was simple: Take corporate America's love affair with learning everything it can about its customers, and its obsession with carving up the country into smaller and smaller clusters of like-minded consumers, and turn those trends into a political strategy. The Bush majority would be made up of thousands of groups of like-minded voters whom the campaign could reach with precisely the right message on the issues they considered most important.

[...]

As a test, Gage was asked to produce targeted messages in several Pennsylvania judicial races in the fall of 2003. Why? The state offered a diverse mix of geography and ethnicity, and it almost certainly would be a battleground for both parties in 2004.

When the election was over, the Republican National Committee commissioned a poll to figure out whether Gage's suppositions about why people voted were accurate. Gage's models predicted voters' tendencies with 90 percent accuracy, according to Dowd, and Gage was hired to microtarget the 16 or so battleground states in the 2004 election.

This is an interest that is near-and-dear to me, inclusive to my academic, professional, and political interests. 

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