11
Dec 12

Fiscal Cliff Clavin

Cliff jumping

The reality of this situation is that Obama put the GOP in a corner surrounded by bear-traps, placed mostly by their own hands since Congress sculpted the fiscal cliff.

Boehner has no good positions, and it doesn’t even matter if a deal is negotiated pre- or post-cliff. He’s hoping a Parliamentary trick of voting “present” will stay an accountability moment and that the Democrats will have to go it alone like with Obamacare, and then cry that it was jammed down their throats (always with the sexual imagery with those people).

There’s zero chance of anything favorable to Obama passing the House, so basically we go over the cliff. If so, we negotiate on our terms and not the false-equivalency of tax revenue and entitlement cuts dictated by the cliff.

Any GOPer who breaks from heterodoxy on taxes – NOT ONE DIME – faces a primary from the far-right teabaggers and the Conservative Entertainment Complex.

As Jim Carville would say, “when you ‘re opponent is drowning throw the fucker an anvil”. Let the craziest supply-siding, dinosaur-riding-Jesus-believing, rape-baby-loving wingnuts primary the relatively-sane incumbent GOPers and count the pickup seats for Democrats.


30
Nov 12

The Shock and Surprise of a Romney Loss?

I don’t know why we’re still hearing about this.  The narrative is that the Romney campaign was shocked – SHOCKED – to find out that they had lost.  TPM amusingly referred to the meme immediately after the election as SHELLSHOCK!

The truth is 1) they believed their own bullshit about Romney momentum, 2) the consultant class of the GOP apparatus needed to portray a winnable race throughout the campaign to ensure a stream of campaigns from the billionaires aided and abetted by 3) a media that needs the excitement of horserace politics to keep the ratings up, the 4) bubble that exists on bullshit mountain kept the campaign (as well as pundits and the rank-and-file) from ever considering anything resembling reality and 5) the electorate is more center-proper or center-left and we are not a center-right nation, or at the very least has been pushed leftward by the Great Recession.

Meanwhile, the same kind of worldview that demanded the polls be unskewed now thinks that Mittens was robbed.

As someone said – the GOP was smoking what they were selling (previously), to disastrous electoral results.


28
Nov 12

The Democrats’ State Problem

The GOP controls 30 of 50 Governors’ mansions and have veto-proof margins in many legislatures.  Let’s not forget that they district the electorates and count the votes.  Let’s also not forget the Tea Party push to rescind the 17th Amendment, which would result in Senators being appointed un-democratically by the State.

The good news is that the GOP at the state level should be chastened by the last election with regards to public union busting and social crusading.  It also may turn out that blame for the lack of action on state exchanges for healthcare may hang around the GOP governors’ necks.  Christie will be leading the GOP Governors Association - his turn towards ‘teddy bear’ post-Sandy plus his desire for a second term as NJ executive and later national ambitions will probably result in a public show of moderation while the dirty deals occur in the GOP-held legislatures.
There’s a way forward for Democrats but it needs to be bottom-up (local, county, and state legislatures), not top-down (Governors mansion).  We need to be party building not waiting for Washington or state parties.  It remains to be seen as to what role Obama’s campaign infrastructure takes post 2012, but it could play a role in party building so long as it isn’t abandoned or left in the hands of the existing Democratic National party.  Think more 3,140-County Strategy than 50-State Strategy, and a thorough re-writing of the Powell Memo.

26
Nov 12

Devil is still in the details – GOP signals break with Grover Norquist?

Who The Hell Is Grover Norquist?

Several Republicans are signaling that Grover “shrink government to the size that it can be drowned in the bathtub” Norquist no longer is holding them hostage on previous pledges to not raise taxes.

Don’t be fooled.  They will negotiate a pittance in additional revenue (ie. raising taxes by closing loopholes or capping deductions on the rich) but only if the Democrats will agree to gut Social Security and Medicare.

The GOP will then run in 2014 on the message that the Democrats want to kill old people.

It’s Lucy and the Football [YouTube].

I say F’em.

Go over the cliff and negotiate a middle-class only tax break, with or without the GOP.  Let the Bush Tax Breaks expire and create new Obama Tax Breaks.  Let the GOP lick the electrified third rail.


19
Nov 12

2012 Vote Tallies, State-by-State

This is a cool Google Doc.

Click the image or this link to access the spreadsheet.