In advance of likely atrocious December automobile sales figures, I’d like to offer a plain and simple explanation – the increase in the number of vehicles in use has outpaced the increase in the number drivers and absolute population.
| Vehicles:Population | Drivers:Population | Vehicles:Drivers | ||
| 1963 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 0.88 | |
| 1973 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 1.03 | |
| 1983 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 1.06 | |
| 1993 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 1.12 | |
| 2003 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 1.18 |
Based on rough calculations on data from NationMaste. The ratio of Vehicles-to-population (Vehicles:Population) reflects how many vehicles are in service compared to the total population. Drivers-to-population reflects the number of licensed drivers compared to total population. Lastly, vehicles-to-drivers reflects the ratio of vehicles in service to the numbers of drivers. These numbers include fleet vehicles, rental vehicles, and taxis.
Add to that the current financial predicament as well as better cars with longer service lives and you end up with an auto population that is in service for longer and longer periods. If I had access to more recent data, I suspect you’d fine an ‘auto bubble’ that started and ended slightly before the housing bubble, empowered by incentives, rebates, and ‘pull-ahead leasing programs’ as well as easy lending post 9/11. It’s not enough to blame management, unions, or American manufacturers.
No related posts.
0 responses so far ↓
There are no comments yet...Kick things off by filling out the form below.
Leave a Comment