I’m fairly comfortable stating the following predictions regarding the election. I base this after parsing the aggregate polls at fivethirtyeight as well as electoral-vote.
My logic was that any state where Obama has a lead of 10-points or greater could safely be assigned a Democratic win, with all others going to McCain. The 10-point margin assumes the presence of a “Bradley Effect” of 6-points and being on the high-side of the margin of error (usually 2.5-3.5%).
Under this scenario, the split for the Electoral College votes is 309 Obama, 229 McCain. This represents McCain’s best-case scenario.
The more-likely scenario, with Obama taking New Mexico, Georgia, and Florida, gives an outcome of 309-229, as pictured below (created with a screencap from 270towin):
The absolute worst case scenario, with Obama taking every state in which he has any measurable lead as of current polling, delivers a result of 415-123. If this should occur, be wary of falling Republicans.
The remaining uncertainties are the effect of cell-phones on polling, the specter of the Bradley Effect (and I suppose the Palin Effect), Republican voter-suppression efforts, the effect of early voting, the impact of new registrations, and turnout, particularly among minorities and youth.
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