Akkam’s Razor

Conservative pundit, columnist, and Bush #41 veteran Michael Smerconish’s Sunday Inquirer piece advocates for Tom Ridge as McCain’s Choice for Vice President.

I don’t disagree that Ridge would be a good choice, and probably less controversial than Mitt. Ridge left office (as Governor) with a 57% approval rating. He is certainly a known national quantity, and well known in the state, and particularly Pittsburgh. He is likewise Catholic, a veteran, and former Assistant District Attorney.

Ridge is a moderate, much in the way that Arlen Specter or Christy Todd Whitman are moderates. When push comes to shove, they stick to the party line. I voted for Ridge, but can’t give you a defensible reason why nor tell you anything of substance he did in the governors mansion. I do know personally that I feel he’s embarrassed the state while in the Bush Administration.  Ridge gave the usual “spend more time with the family” as an excuse when leaving, later suggesting that the public sector did not compensate as well as private, and that he had kids to put through college.  The Vice President makes no more than $221.100; Ridge certainly earns close to that now, or more, and if not, has infinitely more freedom as a private citizen.

In most partisan elections, you initially play to the base and then tack towards the moderates (and independents) as the election draws near, but the modern GOP requires an absolute adherence to the planks, particularly on abortion. McCain signaled a choice that was in line with his personal views and policies, but ultimately, he will concede his independence for ideological purity.

Truth be told, the evangelicals are still going to vote, but the enthusiasm gap will keep them from working the phone trees, driving people to the polls, and calling in to their favorite talk shows. Ridge also gives us the opportunity to mention the duct-tape-and-trashbags terror alerts and the infamous Homeland Security color codes, plus a great chance to illustrate how the GOP gamed terror alerts for political gain. McCain has committed to the extremists, and any deviation will make that enthusiasm gap more severe.

Party loyalty, especially to the reactionaries, absolutists, and ideologues, and not individual loyalty to a Presidential candidate, is going to be what is most important in this race. Given that McCain is likely to announce on his birthday on August 29th, his 72nd birthday, might I ad, the candidate age and the viability of his Vice-President as being qualified to become President and palatable to GOP stakeholders are going to be prime concerns as to McCain’s choice.  I will be infinitely surprised if he makes an unorthodox choice.

Another issue that will play out is what the selection does to the race. Romney brings money, while Ridge may or may not bring Pennsylvania. The electoral calculus that Smerconish suggests is that the presence of Ridge on the ticket will attract moderates turned off by the hard right. A worthwhile idea, but I doubt sincerely that they would be able to offset the anticipated increases in Democratic registration, turnout, and enthusiasm, particularly amongst African-Americans.