Akkam’s Razor

The real story in New Hampshire will be turnout and share of the vote. NH registratlons are as follows:

Ind: 44%
Rep: 30%
Dem: 26%

The current polling indicates Independents breaking 2:1 for Democrats, which would give us:

Rep: 45%
Dem: 55%

I suspect NH plays a role in identifying how Independents will vote nationally, just like Iowa informs about rural voters. It will also serve to determine which messages (hope, change, experience, status quo, fear, etc.) resonate with those voters.

You can check the results from the Concord Monitor’s Primary Blog here.

Popularity: 15% [?]