Akkam’s Razor

The state appears to be forecasting a 51% turnout.  That feels high, especially with a miserable, rainy morning and an extremely strong Democratic candidate.  Voter apathy may slightly depress turnout, but I do expect turnout to follow the trend exhibited in prior years (41% in 2001, 45% in 2005).  I'm going to put it at 49%.

As far as the spread between Taunenberger and Nutter?  I suspect that the majority of Philadelphians perceive Nutter to be the best candidate.  Also, in the primary, I found fewer white voters voting along racial-lines.  I don't expect the spread to counter some of the historical romps of Ed Rendel (80/20), but I also don't expect the squeakers of Street v. Katz.  I'm going to call it 67/33 in favor of Nutter.

The amount of noise surrounding the Judicial Retentions has been murky at best.  Despite the best efforts of activists, I think that aspect of the elections, along with fading of outrage of the pay raise debacle will likely result in full retention for everyone on the bench.