Akkam’s Razor

After the President's 'vision' speech last night, and his attempt to pass the war off on to his (likely-Democratic) successor, it's worthwhile to examine the numbers behind the war, and how much the facts diverge from the "Johnny comes marching home!" headlines appearing across the country today.

Very few tell the real story - that nothing has changed, troop levels are the same as they were prior to the surge, that there will be tens if not hundreds of thousands of soldiers there for years, and lastly that he is handing off responsibility for his war of choice to his successor, absolving his legacy of taint.

AtLargely (via Rawstory) breaks down what Bush said (White House transcripts and video) and a distillation into GOP talking points:

1. We were asked by the Iraqis to help defend them from Al Qaeda, an Iraqi evil that attacked us on September 11, 2001.

2. We defended the Iraqis against Al Qaeda and they were appreciative and vowed to  continue what we started, so our mission to come to the defense of the Iraqi people was a success.

3. But other countries (Iran) and groups (Al Qaeda) keep interfering, killing Iraqis and Americans alike, despite all of our progress.

4. We won't be safe from another 9/11 attack until we secure Iraq, which we cannot do because Iran and Al Qaeda won't let us.

5. Iran, Syria, and Al Qaeda are the real problem, not our efforts to secure Iraq, which have proved a success.

6. Patriotic Americans will understand this, despite their party affiliations, they understand that until Iraq is secure, we are not safe, and we cannot secure Iraq because of Al Qaeda and Iran.

7. Those in the region and elsewhere better take sides now, because you are either with us  (our energy war) "for peace" or against us - terrorists - who will not have peace.

8. We have a moral obligation to the Iraqi people and an security obligation to our own country to ally ourselves with Iraq as she defends herself from Al Qaeda and Iran.

9. The leaders of Iraq and the United States have agreed to defend Iraq from terrorism from Al Qaeda and interference from Iran, who is likely soon to have WMD to use against the entire region.

10. We must secure Iraq and stop the enemy (any country, but for the present Iran, who controls the global energy market).

[1] http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB207/index.htm

[2] http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB207/index.htm

See chronology at bottom.
[3] http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2003/iraq/maps/index.html
[4] http://www.rand.org/publications/randreview/issues/summer2003/burden.html
[5] http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/iraq_insurgency.htm
[6] http://majorityleader.house.gov/docUploads/IraqbytheNumbers.pdf