Akkam’s Razor

Plenty of people are fearing the great Machevelli, Karl Rove, and rumors of an October Suprise, be it an "Al Qaeda" terror attack, a first-strike on Iran, the well timed (two-days prior to the US election) verdict in Saddam Hussein's trial,  a renewed fervor over Gay Marriage, or a disruption of oil supplies from terrorist activity against Saudi Arabia, followed by an attempt to swing the momentum in the Republicans favor.  I say nonsense. 

The Rovian comment that seems to be drawing the most attention is based on this exchange with (NPR commentator Robert Siegel) at the Conservative Radio Dog-and-Pony Show meet and greet (despite all evidence to the contrary):

After midterm election interviewer Robert Siegel stated that "many might consider you on the optimistic end of realism" regarding Republican hopes to retain both Houses in November, Rove suggested that the NPR host was biased.

"Not that you would be exhibiting a bias or anything like that," Rove said. "You're just making a comment."

"I'm looking at all the same polls that you're looking at every day," Seigel responded

"No you're not!" Rove exclaimed.

Rove said that he was reviewing 68 polls a week, and that "unlike the general public, I'm allowed to see the polls on the individual races," as opposed to public polls reported in the media.

"You may be looking at four or five public polls a week that talk about attitudes nationally, but that do not impact the outcome," Rove said.

Rove claimed that the polls "add up to a Republican Senate and a Republican House."

"You may end up with a different math, but you're entitled to your math," Rove said. "I'm entitled to 'the' math." 

For starters, Rove has no superpowers.  The man is an opportunistic parasite, no more, no less.  All he does is capitalize on the missteps of others, to his advantage, and minimize the weaknesses of his candidate or party by transferring and attack those same characteristics on their opponents, a strategy that, all things remaining constant, has proven true.

But there lies the rub.  The Republican majorities ushered in post 9/11, just like those of 1994, were artifacts of their times, with ebbs and flows, just like the business cycle.  One can argue that the "corruption" of Democrats, in concert with fears of globalization, and the never-ending crusade against abortion emboldened Republican candidates and activists, culminating in the orgy and spectacle of the Clinton-Lewinsky affair.  It's just as likely that 9/11 and economic malaise had set the stage for the current Republican majority.  But these things are cyclical, and this cycle, all things remaining constant, is drawing to a close.

I'm not going to wax the skeptical about the various tinfoil hat theories out there - something, no matter how insignificant, will be labeled the "October Suprise", even if nothing significant happens.  The greater point is that Rove leaches parisitically on events, not that he is the grand orchestrator of them.

Rove's chubby fingerprints are all over the Bush legacy, and if anything, it shows us the folly of treating "policy" like "politics" - it doesn't matter how effective a program or strategy is, it just matters how the base receives it.  Iraq, Katrina, Faith-Based Initiatives, the ongoing Foley Affair and associated obstructions, the semantic battles of "stay the course" versus "adapt and change", "retreat" and "withdrawal" versus "redeployment", and "timetable" versus "benchmark", and enough other scandals to require a cheat-sheet - all of these are results of constant nattering about "what the base will think" and what will play best with the "conservative constituency" or an attempt to limit the damage and minimize (or delay) the newsworthiness, not necessarily what is the most prudent or most effective.

Newsday reports on the "three-prong plan":

[…] Rove is giving a virtuoso performance designed to prevent the Democrats from taking control of the House and Senate or, if that is no longer possible, to hold down the size of the Democratic victory to make it easier for the GOP to come back in 2008. His plan is three-pronged: to reenergize any conservatives who may be flagging; to make sure the GOP's carefully constructed campaign apparatus is functioning at peak efficiency; and to put the resources of the federal government to use for political gain.

Now that things aren't "remaining constant", we continue to "stay the course", and go back to the strategies that have worked so well in the past:

1. Go local.
2. Go negative.
3. Blame the Media.
4. Invoke Mushroom Clouds.

Of course, those in power are reality-deniers, so it's also purdent to just declare everything that you don't like "unnaceptable" (via the WaPo):

But a survey of transcripts from Bush's public remarks over the past seven years shows the president's worsening political predicament has actually stoked, rather than diminished, his desire to proclaim what he cannot abide. Some presidential scholars and psychologists describe the trend as a signpost of Bush's rising frustration with his declining influence.

In the first nine months of this year, Bush declared more than twice as many events or outcomes "unacceptable" or "not acceptable" as he did in all of 2005, and nearly four times as many as he did in 2004. He is, in fact, at a presidential career high in denouncing events he considers intolerable. They number 37 so far this year, as opposed to five in 2003, 18 in 2002 and 14 in 2001.

There is nothing to gain in the showing of hesitation.  So of course he's posturing.  But not only that, the same group that was convinced that they dodged a bullet with Katrina, that waterboarding (torture) is a no-brainer, and that the Iraqis would greet us as liberators would think that a reversal of their political fortunes is "inconceivable":