Akkam’s Razor

For some people, the holiest time of year may be Christmas, Easter, Hanukah, Passover, Chinese New Year, Ramadan, or what have you.

For others, it may be Summer Movie Season, "New Releases" of CDs, Games, and DVDs on Tuesdays, or Monday Night Football.

For me, my favorite time of the year is Car Show Season.  I love looking at the coverage, the concept cars, guessing which ones will make to production, which one's will flop.

These are "interesting times" for the whole world regarding cars.  From the pension crisis, to the dominance by the Japanese over the Big-3, the coming invasion of cheap Chinese cars, the march towards non-fossil fuels, global warming, and the US economic climate, or the Japanese nervously looking over there shoulders at the Koreans, there are plenty of reasons to expect that the Automobile Manufacturers in business today may not be the same in a decade or so.

So, without further ado, here's my hot or not list for upcomming cars for 2007 forward…

Hot

Musclecars are back (new Camaro concept, new Challenger concept - both rumored for production by the close of the decade).  I don't know if ~$2.50-3.00 per gallon gasoline will support the sales figures, but they are largely halo cars anyway (example, for every Mustang GT V8 that Ford sells, they sell three secretary-car V6s).  On the high-dollar end, Lamborghini is retro-ing out a new Miura.

Crossovers are hopefully going to turn around the domestic market, as American's begin to realize that land-yacht SUVs with more offroad capability than the average supermarket parking lot demands are costing them too dearly at the pump (and the showroom).  Paying for more vehicle than you need just isn't smart.  GM and Ford are charging hard here - even killing their recently redesigned minivans in favor of them.  If someone could give me an all-weather vehicle that's fun-to-drive and gets good gas, then I'd be soooo in (and not a minivan man).  See the Lincoln MKX/Ford Edge, Buick Enclave (which will spawn a Saturn variant), the Toyota F3R (fear? - this looks to be the next Sienna), cute-utes like the redesigned Hyundai Santa Fe and Toyota Rav4, and the Mazda CX7.

Just like the market movement to crossovers, expect there to be a similar exodus to small(er) cars.  This spring will see the introduction of the 2007 Toyota Yaris (sub-Corolla, replacement for the much maligned Echo), the Honda Fit (sub-Civic), the all-new 2007 Nissan Sentra, the sub-Sentra Nissan Versa, and a redesigned Chevrolet Aveo.  Ford also has several small concepts coming up along the same line of thought.

Segment Busting:  In retail, traditional department stores were (and are being) killed by category killers and big-box stores (liek Target, Best Buy, etc.).  The same is also true in the automobile segment.  All of the also-rans in some segments added up don't equal the sales of the number one seller (think Camry or Accord versus Mazda 6 + Hyundai Sonata + Ford 500, etc.).  The solution?  Make up your own segments!  Expect to see more DNA swapping in automobiles.  Witness the Hyundai HCDC9 Talus, the (European-only) Ford SAV, the Kia Soul, Following on the musclecar theme, retro is still in.  I was kind of hoping that the retro buzz would have died with the New Beetle and the PT Cruiser, and possibly take reality TV down with it, but it appears it's still going strong.

Though not really retro, more iconic, DaimlerChrysler has refreshed the Jeep Wrangler again for 2007 (10-years since the last redesign), which is a guaranteed hit for it's legendary offroad prowess as well as an innovative new roof design.

Coupes are back: I don't know if it's my generation and an early mid-life crises or if it's the boomers realizing they only need to cart around grandkids, but coupes are back, in a big way.  Witness the Mazda Kabura, aforementioned Camaro and Challenger, the Ford Reflex, and the Infiniti G35 concept (which is the production '07 G35).

Cars have pretty much been the same since their invention a century ago.  The still burn fossil fiels, still turn wheels, still use friction to stop, and people fit into cars the same ways they always have, front, middle, and back, all in neat rows.  Expect to see more concept focusing on innovative packaging - with some possibly making it to production.  As examples, check the interiors of the Ford 250 Super Chief and the Toyota F3R.

Anything Hybrid:  It's been proposed the Hybrid sales fluctuate with gas prices.  Since the driving public has now been conditioned that above $2 per gallon is "normal" and with the realization that it most likely will NEVER get cheaper, expect everyone and their grandmother to jump into the hybrid business with both feet, despite what the magazine geezers say.  See the VUE Greenline, the Tahoe Hybrid, Camry, and so on.

Not

Jeep Compass: (1.) Ugly, (2.) Not a real Jeep.  See also the Toyota FJ - although the rockcrawling fanboys will love it.  The Caliber isn't my style, and the Rubbermaid-like interior will surely anger the old, balding, car-nerds at the magazines.  Also, the "new" Chrysler Imperial?  Kill. It. Now.  This "thing" is hideous.  Chrysler also misunderestimates the market by resurrecting the Chrysler Aspen nameplate on a rebadged Durango.  No thanks.  Wow, that's a tifecta of failure for Chrysler!

Meh

2007 Toyota Camry: I'm not a fan of the majority of Asian cars - I find them to be soulless appliances, like toasters and refrigerators.  But given how popular the Camry is, this 7/8ths scale Avalon is sure to be a hit.

Keeping Lincoln and Mercury alive at FoMoCo makes as much sense to me as keeping Saab on life support.  The Lincoln MKX and the MKS might as well just be Fords.

The New GMT-900 SUV/trucks (Escalade ESV, ESX, EXT; Chevrolet Tahoe, Suburban):  Poor GM, if gasoline wasn't such a concern right now, these trucks would be assuming their rightful place at the top of the truck food chain, being praised for their clean design, refined interiors, and improved performance.  Maybe they should start working on a time machine next?

Mitsubishi:  A concept and convertible.  Does anyone really care anymore?