Akkam’s Razor

I’ve been utterly preoccupied with this meme, which started with some references I read somewhere on on Billmon or on BOPNEWS, and further researched on this document (PDF/HTML) titled the Fourth Republic by Stirling Newberry of BOPNEWS:

Each Republic, then, has three important pillars - a monetary basis, a system of power arrangements to negotiate the working of that monetary basis in social and economic power, and a lens which ties the government to the fiscal discipline needed for maintaining the relationship between the two. When the monetary basis becomes unworkable, there is a economic crisis which, while perhaps no larger than others, is intractable to the old order, as political arrangements are unable to cope with the tension between what must be done and what can be done. The crisis is only resolved after there is over-reaching attempt which destroys the previous currency basis. Only when some means to take on the debt left behind by the older order, and the cost of repairing it, is assigned, does the process truly end, an a new Republic is born, and grows to maturity.

I keep going back to it, and wondering (metaphorically), "Is the sun on the chair rising or setting?"

What’s the failure that doesn’t work in our current environment that spurs drastic action? Will it be housing values? Consumer Debt? The (current) two party system? The end of the Supply Side economy? The trade imbalance? Budget defecits? Out-of-control healthcare expenses? Stagnant wages? Rising energy costs and their attendant effect on inflation? The "real" cost of inflation (once housing expenses are, ahem, corrected)?

And why 72-years? For some reason, I’m stuck on the "Rule of 72", which states if you divide any interest rate into 72, your result will be the number of years it will take money to double in value from compound interest. I recall seeing that it has something to do with the average lifespan, political cycles, astrology, stockmarket cycles… what is it?

In any case, there are two paths that we find ourselves pondering - the path of "On Your OWNership that the Republicans are spending, and a yet-to-be-determined path, not yet discovered yet alone explored. As best I can tell, the Democratic Party has neither the will nor the ability to innovate and foster change, rather, they are also the problem, merely the opposite side of the same coin. We voted for Kerry because we didn’t want Bush - same as they did the reverse…and yet we deride them.

We worry about abortion, the courts, torture, FOIA, campaign finance reform, religion, and all these other "hot button" issues that determine which way the pendulumn swings, left or right. Everything argued over drinks, debated in the courtrooms, studied in the classrooms, and practiced in the bedroom are all noise - at the end of the day, it means nothing…it’s all about the money.

This "Republican Majority" that Turd Blossom has labored on so diligently is doomed to fail. Our entire economy, as it stands, is a dinosaur, doomed to extinction, destined to be replaced by next years model, that is, if you believe in evolution and all that. All of the actions of the Republicans have been solely to preserve the wealth of their base, and to capture as many social conservatives as possible. But the simple fact that we operate on a mass market, supply-side, manufacturing infrastructure which is driven by demand-side spending by the consumer will determine the eventual rejection of the Republicans. It’s time to start working on the alternative.

So what will that changed model look like? What element of our existing economy is failing?